2007 UD Black Baseball Analysis
January 18th, 2008 by AlexHere’s my 2007 UD Black Baseball Analysis. It’s similar to the 2007 Topps Sterling Analysis that I did before. Information is based on the full UD Black Checklist found at Upper Deck.com. Numbers are based on the entire baseball card print run and do not reflect any cards held back from distribution by Upper Deck for NPN programs or other reasons. All percentages shown are chances of getting a card out of a 2 pack box.
First, some comments:
Obviously, UD Black Baseball is a high-end product so I was really surprised when I saw the shear size of the checklist. 149 different players appear on at least one baseball card each. The “base set” is 42 veterans and 30 rookies. That leaves 77 players that only appear in insert sets.
Some players only appear in the Pure White Packs, including big names like Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and Albert Pujols. Bottom line, there is no player that appears in every set, so if you are a player collector consult the checklist before you go chasing after cards that don’t exist!
For the most part, every card has a gold and pearl parallel. However, there are some cards that don’t… and there are some parallels of cards that aren’t in the regular set. Weird. Also, the gold versions of the Prominent Numbers set are #’d to 10, but the regular cards in that set are #’d to the player’s jersey number, so some of the gold parallels are actually more common than the regular cards.
There are 10 mystery dual cut redemptions included in UD Black. That gives you a 0.057% chance of getting one if you buy a box.
There are 1,432 one of one’s, giving you about a 8.2% shot at pulling one.
Now, let’s get to the complete analysis…
The Basics
Total Boxes: 17,443
Total Cards: 34,886
One of One’s: 1,432
Mystery Cut Exchange Cards: 10
Total Players on Checklist: 149
The Big Names
| Player | Total Cards | Chance |
| Cal Ripken Jr | 505 | 2.9% |
| Ken Griffey Jr | 487 | 2.8% |
| Derek Jeter | 190 | 1.1% |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 220 | 1.3% |
| Joba Chamberlain | 114 | 0.7% |
10 Most Common Players
| Player | Total Cards | Chance |
| Dan Haren | 683 | 3.9% |
| Coco Crisp | 669 | 3.8% |
| Justin Morneau | 629 | 3.6% |
| Curtis Granderson | 624 | 3.6% |
| B.J. Upton | 607 | 3.5% |
| Aaron Harang | 598 | 3.4% |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 598 | 3.4% |
| Justin Verlander | 597 | 3.4% |
| Ryan Braun | 597 | 3.4% |
| Howie Kendrick | 596 | 3.4% |
Remember!!
All percentages shown are chances of getting a card out of a 2 pack box.
Set Breakdown
| Card Type | Total Cards | Chance |
| Base Cards (1-42) » View Auctions | 3,467 | 19.9% overall |
| Base (#’d to 75 or less) | 2,870 | 16.5% |
| Gold (#’d to 10) | 390 | 2.2% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 39 | 0.2% |
| Printing Plates (#’d to 1) | 168 | 1% |
| Pride of the Nation » View Auctions | 5,830 | 33.4% overall |
| Veteran (#’d to 75) | 1,975 | 11.3% |
| Rookie (#’d to 99) | 2,970 | 17.0% |
| Gold (#’d to 10) | 590 | 3.4% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 59 | 0.3% |
| Printing Plates (#’d to 1) | 236 | 1.4% |
| Prodigious » View Auctions | 7,609 | 43.6% overall |
| Single Auto (#’d 75 or less) | 3,650 | 20.9% |
| Single Auto Gold (#’d to 25) | 1,425 | 8.2% |
| Single Auto Pearl (#’d to 1) | 59 | 0.3% |
| Material Auto (#’d to 50 or less) | 2,035 | 11.7% |
| Material Auto Gold (#’d to 10) | 400 | 2.3% |
| Material Auto Pearl (#’d to 1) | 40 | 0.2% |
| Lustrous » View Auctions | 4,155 | 23.8% overall |
| Single Auto (#’d to 50 or less) | 1,765 | 10.1% |
| Single Auto Gold (#’d to 10) | 370 | 2.1% |
| Single Auto Pearl (#’d to 1) | 37 | 0.2% |
| Material Auto (#’d to 50 or less) | 1,576 | 9.0% |
| Material Auto Gold (#’d to 10) | 370 | 2.1% |
| Material Auto Pearl (#’d to 1) | 37 | 0.2% |
| August Patch Auto » View Auctions | 796 | 4.6% overall |
| Base (#’d to 25 or less) | 629 | 3.6% |
| Gold (#’d to 5) | 140 | 0.8% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 27 | 0.2% |
| Premium Bat Barrel » View Auctions | 1,694 | 9.7% overall |
| Base (#’d to 50 or less) | 1,375 | 7.9% |
| Gold (#’d to 10) | 290 | 1.7% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 29 | 0.2% |
| Prominent Numbers » View Auctions | 1,457 | 8.4% overall |
| Base (#’d to player’s uniform) | 1,003 | 5.8% |
| Gold (#’d to 10) | 412 | 2.4% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 42 | 0.2% |
| Game Day Autos » View Auctions | 6,180 | 35.4% overall |
| Ticket (#’d to 50 or less) | 1,630 | 9.3% |
| Ticket Gold (#’d to 10) | 350 | 2.0% |
| Ticket Pearl (#’d to 1) | 37 | 0.2% |
| Box Score ( #’d to 50) | 1,700 | 9.7% |
| Box Score Gold (#’d to 10) | 340 | 1.9% |
| Box Score Pearl (#’d to 1) | 37 | 0.2% |
| Lineup (#’d to 50) | 1,700 | 9.7% |
| Lineup Gold (#’d to 10) | 350 | 2.0% |
| Lineup Pearl (#’d to 1) | 36 | 0.2% |
| Pure White Autos » View Auctions | 486 | 2.8% overall |
| Base (#’d to 1) | 98 | 0.6% |
| Printing Plate (#’d to 1) | 388 | 2.2% |
| Illustrious Duals » View Auctions | 2,420 | 13.9% overall |
| Base (#’d to 25 or less) | 615 | 3.5% |
| Gold (#’d to 15) | 375 | 2.1% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 25 | 0.1% |
| Material Auto (#’d to 50 or less) | 1,130 | 6.5% |
| Patch Auto (#’d to 15 or less) | 275 | 1.6% |
| Triptych Triples » View Auctions | 610 | 3.5% overall |
| Base (#’d to 15) | 225 | 1.3% |
| Gold (#’d to 5) | 75 | 0.4% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 15 | 0.1% |
| Material Auto (#’d to 25) | 250 | 1.4% |
| Patch Auto (#’d to 5) | 45 | 0.3% |
| Upper Echelon Quads » View Auctions | 129 | 0.7% overall |
| Base (#’d to 5) | 55 | 0.3% |
| Gold (#’d to 3) | 33 | 0.2% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 11 | 0.1% |
| Material Auto (#’d to 5 or less) | 25 | 0.1% |
| Patch Auto (#’d to 1) | 5 | 0.03% |
| Exclusive Eights » View Auctions | 42 | 0.2% overall |
| Base (#’d to 3) | 21 | 0.1% |
| Gold (#’d to 2) | 14 | 0.1% |
| Pearl (#’d to 1) | 7 | 0.04% |
If you have any questions, or find any mistakes (!), let me know. I may post the entire 149 player checklist in a separate post depending on the response I get on this.
Thanks for reading!






February 12th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Ted Williams…
Are you sure this is correct?…
February 15th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
It’s as correct as the Upper Deck Checklists are. So while it may not be 100% accurate, it’s close enough to be useful to anyone interested in busting a box.
February 29th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Jack…
Hi You are very good writer, thanks……
November 12th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
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